Sunday Night Football: Kansas City Chiefs (9-0) at Denver Broncos (8-1)

This is no newsflash, but the Kansas City Chiefs are not nearly as good as their 9-0 record would indicate.  The past three weeks have seen them scrape by average teams, aided in large part to their opposition’s ineptitude, as well as to their own good fortune.  Two weeks ago the Chiefs continued their string of good luck of facing inferior opposing quarterbacks, as they played a Bills team that was forced to start third string QB Jeff Tuel, an undrafted rookie from Washington State.  Yet Buffalo’s 470 yards on offense more than doubled Kansas City’s mediocre 210 yard output.  The Chiefs somehow pulled out the win with a fumble recovery for a TD as well as an interception returned for a TD.  The previous week Kansas City staved off victory from the Browns as they were aided by a muffed punt and a litany of dropped passes by the normally sure-handed Devon Bess.  The week preceding the Browns game saw the Chiefs host a Texans team led by rookie Case Keenum in his first professional game.  Keenum played admirably completing 15 of 25 passes for 271 yards and 1 TD without an interception yet the Chiefs were able to hang on by a score of 17-16. 

The Chiefs also beat Dallas by the same 17-16 score in week two, but other than that game, the quality of their opponents has been among the worst in the NFL.  KC’s other five victories came at Jacksonville, at Philadelphia, at Tennessee, and home against Oakland.  This is not to completely take away from what the Chiefs have done this year, as road wins are impressive no matter who the opponent is, but it is my roundabout way of saying that the Chiefs are not even close to the same caliber of team as Peyton Manning’s Denver Broncos.

 

Do I even need to go into detail about how good the Broncos have been this year?   Potentially the greatest quarterback of all time is having his best professional season in a career that includes four MVP awards.  Manning is currently projected to break the NFL record for passing yards in a single season by a wide margin with 5,776 yards, which would break Drew Brees’ record of 5,476 yards set in 2011.  It would also break Manning’s own personal best (4,700) by over one thousand yards.  In addition to his 71% completion rate and 8.81 yards per attempt (second to Aaron Rodgers at 8.84), he also has thrown for an incredible 33 touchdowns to just 6 interceptions.

 

In addition to their greatest-show-on-earth offense, the Broncos also recently had their two best defensive players return to the field in linebacker Von Miller and cornerback Champ Bailey.  While the Broncos did lose to the Colts in Peyton’s return to Indy, Alex Smith does not have nearly as much of a chance of keeping up with Peyton Manning as Andrew Luck did.  Unless you’re of the belief that the Chiefs defense can slow down Manning (somehow, I don’t see that happening with the way rookies Jeff Tuel and Case Keenum moved the ball against KC), what this game will come down to on Sunday night is can Alex Smith keep up with Peyton Manning?

The Spread: The spread on this game is between 7.5 and 8 points in favor of Denver, depending on where you look.  I would anticipate more money to come in on Denver as people realize that KC is overrated, but at the same time public money may come in strong on KC given the large spread and their undefeated record. 

The Pick: I do not think the Kanas City Chiefs can stay within 7 points of the Broncos.  Even if it takes all game to establish a lead, eventually Manning will go up by multiple touchdowns and I can’t envision Alex Smith being able to stage a comeback. 

Score Prediction: Broncos 34, Chiefs 24

NFL Sunday: Week 10

There are two games on the schedule that I just don’t understand how Vegas came up with the line, and those are Bills at Steelers, and Panthers at 49ers.  The common denominator in these games is that I like the road team in each contest.  Generally home field advantage is worth three points if you have two equal adversaries on the field.  In these contests I believe the line just doesn’t justify the talent of the home teams.

 

Let’s start in Pittsburgh.  When the Bills meet the Steelers on Sunday afternoon I believe the Bills will clearly be the superior team on the field.  However, the line on this game suggests that these are equal teams, suggesting that there is line value with the Bills who have been more effective than the Steelers on both offense and defense this year.

Buffalo’s defense starts on the D-line where they feature Pro Bowler Kyle Williams anchoring the middle of line.  The third overall pick in the 2011 draft Marcell Dareus plays next to him at the 3-tecnique, while Pro Bowler Mario Williams flanks Dareus at right defensive end.  Middle linebacker Kiko Alonso is one tackle away from the league lead despite this being his rookie season, while the Bills secondary features Leodis McKelvin at corner and Jairus Byrd at safety.

The Bills are also getting their number one pick in this past draft back in quarterback EJ Manuel.  Manuel was the first QB selected in the 2013 NFL Draft and had played well before spraining his LCL causing him to miss the past four weeks.  In addition to EJ Manuel returning to health, the league’s most explosive running back from 2012 has also begun a return to form as CJ Spiller ran for 116 yards on 12 carries and added 39 through the air last week against Kansas City.  In that game the Bills outgained Kansas City with 470 yards to Kansas City’s 210 yards, but lost due to key turnovers including a pick-6 inside the KC red zone, and a fumble recovery returned for a TD by Kansas City.  During that game it was undrafted rookie Jeff Tuel who led Buffalo to its 470 yards gained, so one can only imagine that EJ Manuel can deliver similar or better results.

  

The reason to be optimistic about the Bills has as much to do with Buffalo as it does with Pittsburgh as their aging defense continues to crumble.  Pittsburgh is second to last in the NFL in rushing yards allowed at 131.4 yards per game, and while they’re #4 overall against the pass, this is likely due to the fact that they have six losses and teams have less of a need to pass as they run out the clock.

 

The real problem in Pittsburgh though, lies in their offense which is averaging just 19.5 points per game, good for #25 overall in the NFL.  While the Steelers can pass it well when Big Ben has time, they’re tied for second worst in the league with 32 sacks allowed this season.  With a terrible offensive line and an aging defense, Pittsburgh’s 2-6 record truly reflects what kind of team they are in 2013, and that is not on the same level as the Buffalo Bills.

 

The Spread: Steelers -3

The Pick: I’ll gladly take the +3 in this contest.

The Panthers at 49ers game has me more confused than Bills at Steelers.  Look, I get it that the Panthers haven’t beaten any very good teams, but they’ve scored at least 30 points in each of their victories while outscoring opponents by an average of 24 points per win.  Their three losses came at home against Seattle to open the season with a 12-7 loss, which was followed by a 24-23 loss on the road against Buffalo.  Their other loss came on the road against a good home team in Arizona, who also has wins at home against Detroit and Atlanta.  The point is that while Carolina hasn’t proven themselves against top competition, they have completely demoralized their opponents during their five wins.  San Francisco is likely the better team, but to be favored by 6.5 points you have to be decidedly better, and I do not think that is the case.  San Fran ranks #1 overall in rushing yards per game at 153, but faces a very good Carolina front seven this week.  Conversely, the Niners have the worst passing attack in the NFL at just 189.9 yards per game. 

The Spread: 49ers -6.5

The Pick: This should be a low scoring contest between two similarly talented teams and 6.5 is way too many points to lay in the type of physical, grinding game that we should see on Sunday.

Saturday Night College Football: #13 LSU at #1 Alabama

Alabama against LSU is the kind of black and blue game that football fans can’t help but get all hyped up for.  Sometimes though, that hype results in one giant letdown as it did on November 5, 2011 when Alabama visited LSU and lost in OT 9-6.  Fast forward one year and we were treated to a very competitive game that Alabama had to pull out late with a 28-yard screen pass for a TD to TJ Yeldon with 51 seconds remaining.

 

TJ Yeldon has taken over as the starter this year but continues to share carries, mostly with sophomore Kenyan Drake who averages 7.8 yards per carry with 491 yards gained on the ground.   Yeldon has held his own with 115 carries for 729 yards, but Alabama has a very balanced run/pass ratio and AJ McCarron has done the bulk of the heavy lifting, completing 69.4% of his passes for 1862 yards on 209 attempts. 

Of course, when talking about Alabama it all starts with the defense, which is #1 overall in points allowed this year at a miniscule 9.8.  The defense is led by future first round pick C.J. Mosley at inside linebacker and potential top ten pick HaHa Clinton-Dix at safety.  The one game that exposed Alabama was at Texas A&M where Johnny Manziel put up 464 yards and 5 TDs in a 42-49 loss as Nick Saban had his revenge from a year ago.  In last year’s contest Texas A&M put up 29 points against the Alabama defense, again the most points they gave up all season long.

 

Can LSU put up any kind of offensive attack against Alabama?  They did a year ago, as LSU was in charge for most of the game, led by Zach Mettenberger who was 24/35 for 298 yards, 1 TD and 0 INT.  Running back Jeremy Hill also ground up 107 yards on 29 carries in the game.  Mettenberger is vastly improved this year, completing 65.4% of his passes compared to 58.8% in 2012 and spiking his yards per attempt all the way up to 10.79 from 7.41 a year ago.  Jeremy Hill is also back and better than a year ago, already matching his TD total from a year ago with 12 and increasing his yards per carry from 5.3 to 7.2.

While LSU’s offense is humming along at 40.2 points per game, their defense has lost a bit of its luster as they rank #31 overall in points allowed at 21.9.  The games they had trouble with were at Ole Miss, where they lost 27-24, and at Georgia in a 44-41 loss.  LSU’s impact player on defense is 6’ 3” 305 pound defensive tackle Anthony Johnson who is just another in the long line of elite defensive tackle prospects to come out of LSU.  Beyond Johnson though, LSU does not have another player projected to go in the first round of the 2014 NFL draft.

 

The Spread: Alabama opened as 9 point favorites and the line steadily rose up to -13 before falling to Alabama -12.5 points.  13 points seems like an awful lot in this game, as Alabama was only favored by 10 in the National Championship game against Notre Dame.  For a rivalry game like this, I think double digit points is too much to give up.  It’s hard to go against Alabama, especially as they have established themselves as the no-question best team in college football, but I think LSU will score enough to make this a single digit loss.

 

The Pick: Take the points, but wait and see if the line goes back to +13.  LSU’s offense is better than a year ago when they played Alabama and very easily could have won the game.  Alabama has a clear advantage on defense, but they were exposed to give up 40+ points against Texas A&M and LSU should be able to score enough points to keep this one in reach.

Recap of Thursday night college football

Well, wow.  Oregon was shut out for most of the game against a Stanford team that looked clearly superior.  The game was only made reasonably close in the end by a blocked field goal for a touchdown and a converted onside kick late by Oregon.  Stanford consistently put pressure on Mariota who never looked comfortable.  Meanwhile, Stanford's quarterback Kevin Hogan consistently picked up first downs with his feet as Oregon made a habit of missing key tackles.  That is to say nothing of Stanford's running game, which had its way with the Oregon defense all game long as Tyler Gaffney racked up 157 yards on 45 carries.  I don't know if I've ever seen a running back get 45 carries, but it should have been even higher.  Every time Stanford threw the ball it was a bad decision, because Oregon could do absolutely nothing against the run.  I figured that Oregon would learn from their loss to Stanford last year, but it was just more of the same from a year ago, and Stanford looked much more dominant than the 26-20 final score looked.  At least we now know that Oregon against Alabama would have been an awful game, because if Stanford could do this to Oregon I can't imagine the bloodbath versus Alabama.  It also speaks to how good Stanford really is.

At least Baylor stepped up, as they routed Oklahoma 41-12.  The most impressive part of this win was Baylor's defense, which flew to the ball and consistently made impact plays.  The 42 points Baylor scored could have been a lot higher, as they made a few mistakes early in the first half before catching their stride right before the half ended.  Baylor definitely deserves consideration for the #2 BCS slot, but with Florida State playing as well as they are, the conversation is really who is the third best team in the country between Baylor and Ohio State.  You'd have to put Stanford in that conversation as well, but with one loss they're on the outside looking in right now.  Now we can look forward to a Saturday slate of games that includes #1 Alabama hosting #13 LSU capping off the action at 8 EST on CBS.

Thursday Night College Football: #10 Oklahoma at #6 Baylor

The first college football game on Thursday night (7:30 PM ET Fox Sports 1) features a team in Baylor who has looked more like Oregon than Oregon has so far this year.  The Baylor Bears began the season averaging 70.5 points through its first four games and are averaging 63.85 points per game on the season.  They have yet to play a ranked opponent but have demoralized their conference foes, beating down West Virginia 73-42 before winning their closest game of the season 35-25 at Kansas State, then coming home to beat Iowa State 71-7 and finally traveling to Kansas for a 59-14 victory.

Baylor brutally inflicts damage on the ground behind Junior RB Lache Seastrunk who is averaging 9.1 yards per carry leading to 869 yards on the ground.  Freshman RB Shock Linwood isn't too far behind him, averaging 8.1 yards per carry and 443 yards rushing.  While Baylor has a run to pass ratio of 1.52 with 335 rush attempts to 220 pass attempts, their passing attack is possibly the most efficient and deadly in college football.  Junior QB Bryce Petty is starting for the first time in his college career and is putting up an incredible 13.94 yards per attempt while completing 69.3% of his passing en route to 18 TD to just 1 INT.  Baylor has also limited Petty to a mere 3 sacks on the season, as the Bears can seemingly do whatever they want on offense.

 

On the other hand, Oklahoma has also had an impressive season so far with a record of 7-1, their one major letdown coming at home against Texas when they were embarrassed 36-20.  They’re coming off of a 38-20 win at home against #10 ranked Texas Tech and beat their only other ranked opponent, #22 Notre Dame, 35-21 at South Bend.  Oklahoma has had success due to a strong defense and a multifaceted rush attack which includes 66 rush attempts by 6’ 6” 252 lb monster quarterback Blake Bell.  Bell has been a capable passer, but Oklahoma as a team is only averaging 201 passing yards per game, with Bell throwing 10 TD's to 3 INT, and completing 63.8% of his passes for 7.62 yards per attempt.

 

The Spread: This game opened up with Baylor -9 and quickly jumped all the way to -13.5 before settling at Baylor -14.5.

The Pick: Oklahoma is a very good team, but I just don’t think they can hang with the Baylor Bears.  This game is at Baylor and is their first opportunity to prove to the country that they belong in National Championship consideration.  They are the most lethal offense in the country and I think they will unleash the beast in front of a national audience in what will be their biggest game of the season.  14.5 is a lot of points to lay and would look a lot nicer at -14, but due to the style points required to garner BCS votes, I see Baylor pushing down the throttle in this game.

Thursday Night College Football: #3 Oregon at #5 Stanford

Finally we have a Thursday night college football matchup worthy of must-see-TV.  #3 Oregon at #5 Stanford at 9 PM Eastern should be a great nightcap to a Thursday night that features two games with top 10 teams pitted against each other.  We’ll get to #10 Oklahoma at #6 Baylor a little later but for right now let’s examine the Pac-12 matchup of the season so far.

 

Oregon has not lost a step with Chip Kelly leaving for the NFL, as Marcus Mariota may be the best quarterback in college football.  He has the size (6-4, 211), the arm strength, and the speed to dominate the college level, and has had his way this year with 20 TD to 0 INT while completing 64% of his passes for a 10.14 yards per attempt.  Add in his 511 rushing yards and 9 rushing TDs and Mariota is downright scary.  But we all know how good Oregon’s offense is, as they rank 2^nd in points (to Baylor) and 2^nd in rushing yards, but what you may not know is that the Oregon defense is also 8^th overall in points against.

 

Oregon hasn’t exactly played great competition, but they did blow out Virginia and Tennessee by a combined score of 118-24 and have handled both ranked opponents they’ve played, winning 45-24 at #16 Washington and taking care of #12 UCLA at home last week by a score of 42-14. 

Likewise, Stanford has also handled the three ranked opponents on their schedule so far, taking out #15 Washington 31-28 at home, then two weeks later taking down #9 UCLA at home and winning at #25 Oregon State last week by a score of 20-12.  Stanford relies on a strong offensive line and steady quarterback play by Kevin Hogan.  Stanford loves to run the ball and has seen 10 different players with a carry in 2013, leading to a run pass ratio of 1.72 with 317 rush attempts to 184 pass attempts. 

The Spread:  This game opened up with Oregon -8.5, then jumped to -7 before the money poured in on Oregon and the line settled at -10. 

The Pick: It sure would be nice to get that line down to -9.5, but I still like Oregon in this contest.  While the game is at Stanford, and the Stanford defense, combined with a power running game should keep this game close early, I think Oregon will eventually pull away and Stanford does not have the fire power to make a late comeback.  With all of that said, however, Stanford did go into Oregon last year and pull off a 17-14 upset in OT.  I just do not see a repeat coming with a more mature Marcus Mariota, as well as a Stanford team that is just not as good as last year’s squad.  Last year’s game featured two now NFL players on Stanford taking over the game, as Stepfan Taylor ran for 161 yards on 33 carries and TE Zach Ertz caught 11 passes for 106 yards.

You also have to consider that Oregon is in a dogfight for the #2 overall BCS spot and a ticket to play Alabama for the National Championship.   Florida State has taken their rightful place as the #2 team in the BCS after yet another shellacking, this time against rival Miami.  While undefeated Ohio State is one spot behind Oregon and is also blowing out teams left and right in the pathetic Big 10 as they try to state their case to the BCS.  Oregon is going to need a resounding victory on the road to make voters take notice, and I think they’ll do just that on Thursday night.

NFL Week 10: Philadelphia Eagles at Green Bay Packers

The Philadelphia Eagles may be the most perplexing team at this point in the NFL season.  They began 2013 with a Monday night game against Washington that saw them explode onto our television sets with Chip Kelly's high powered offense.  However, a lackluster second half combined with what we soon learned is a pathetic Washington Redskin defense meant that Chip Kelly's offense may not have been quite as good as the nation thought after watching the season's opening drive.  After winning that game 33-27, the Eagles proceeded to lose three straight games (albeit to quality opponents in San Diego, Kansas City and Denver) before taking care of the lousy Giants and Buccaneers by a combined 26 points.  In their following two home games though, the Eagles further confounded onlookers as they scored a combined 10 points against the Cowboys and again versus the Giants.

Then Nick Foles went all Peyton Manning on Oakland tying an NFL record with 7 TD's against 0 interceptions and a perfect 158.3 passer rating.  It was quite possibly the greatest performance a quarterback has ever had in the National Football League, and it came on the arm of Nick f*ing Foles.

Now this incredibly confusing Eagles team has to travel up to Green Bay who just lost Aaron Rodgers for the foreseeable future.  Green Bay has struggled against the pass this season, allowing opponents to put up a 95.3 passer rating, and they no longer have the ability to come back late in a game with Seneca Wallace taking over at quarterback.  The one thing the Packers do have going for them is a running game to be reckoned with.  Simply put, Eddie Lacy is an absolute beast, and one of the hardest running backs to take down in the NFL.  However, without defensive star Clay Matthews and franchise QB Aaron Rodgers, can the Packers keep up with the Eagles?

Yes, they probably can because the Eagles have a porous defense, but I'm not sure they can keep this game within reach over the course of four quarters.  The Eagles are dead last against the pass, but that should not matter as much now that Seneca Wallace will be under center for Green Bay.  The Eagles will load up the box with eight defenders and cannot possibly be as bad as Chicago was against the run this past Monday night.

The Spread: This line opened up at Packers -2.5 and has quickly moved down to Packers -1.  While Seneca Wallace looked awful on Monday night against the Bears, he is going to be better with one week of practice and coaching to prepare for the game.  The Packers will shove the run down Philadelphia's throat and try to maintain the advantage in time of possession.  It is likely that this line continues to move as the public pounds Philadelphia based on the Packers most recent loss, and more importantly the loss of Aaron Rodgers.  We haven't seen the Packers play a meaningful game without Rodgers or Brett Favre in the past 20 years, so this will be uncharted territory on Sunday afternoon.

The wildcard in this game is Nick Foles.  You cannot throw 7 touchdown passes against zero interceptions without being incredibly skilled.  Clearly Foles found match ups to exploit and did so all afternoon long without any adjustments from the Oakland defense.

The Pick: I love Philadelphia in this game, but only if the line doesn't get out of hand and the Eagles stay as underdogs.  When I first saw this line I bought a half point to get it up to Eagles +3 (-135), but the line will most likely never get back to that spread.  However, I see the Eagles winning this game because I think Chip Kelly will put Nick Foles in a position to take control of the game.  The Packers will battle with Eddie Lacy and their resurgent running game to try and limit the amount of plays the Eagles can run, but in the end I see the Eagles pulling away.

Final Score Prediction:  Eagles 27, Packers 24