NFL Sunday: Week 10

There are two games on the schedule that I just don’t understand how Vegas came up with the line, and those are Bills at Steelers, and Panthers at 49ers.  The common denominator in these games is that I like the road team in each contest.  Generally home field advantage is worth three points if you have two equal adversaries on the field.  In these contests I believe the line just doesn’t justify the talent of the home teams.

 

Let’s start in Pittsburgh.  When the Bills meet the Steelers on Sunday afternoon I believe the Bills will clearly be the superior team on the field.  However, the line on this game suggests that these are equal teams, suggesting that there is line value with the Bills who have been more effective than the Steelers on both offense and defense this year.

Buffalo’s defense starts on the D-line where they feature Pro Bowler Kyle Williams anchoring the middle of line.  The third overall pick in the 2011 draft Marcell Dareus plays next to him at the 3-tecnique, while Pro Bowler Mario Williams flanks Dareus at right defensive end.  Middle linebacker Kiko Alonso is one tackle away from the league lead despite this being his rookie season, while the Bills secondary features Leodis McKelvin at corner and Jairus Byrd at safety.

The Bills are also getting their number one pick in this past draft back in quarterback EJ Manuel.  Manuel was the first QB selected in the 2013 NFL Draft and had played well before spraining his LCL causing him to miss the past four weeks.  In addition to EJ Manuel returning to health, the league’s most explosive running back from 2012 has also begun a return to form as CJ Spiller ran for 116 yards on 12 carries and added 39 through the air last week against Kansas City.  In that game the Bills outgained Kansas City with 470 yards to Kansas City’s 210 yards, but lost due to key turnovers including a pick-6 inside the KC red zone, and a fumble recovery returned for a TD by Kansas City.  During that game it was undrafted rookie Jeff Tuel who led Buffalo to its 470 yards gained, so one can only imagine that EJ Manuel can deliver similar or better results.

  

The reason to be optimistic about the Bills has as much to do with Buffalo as it does with Pittsburgh as their aging defense continues to crumble.  Pittsburgh is second to last in the NFL in rushing yards allowed at 131.4 yards per game, and while they’re #4 overall against the pass, this is likely due to the fact that they have six losses and teams have less of a need to pass as they run out the clock.

 

The real problem in Pittsburgh though, lies in their offense which is averaging just 19.5 points per game, good for #25 overall in the NFL.  While the Steelers can pass it well when Big Ben has time, they’re tied for second worst in the league with 32 sacks allowed this season.  With a terrible offensive line and an aging defense, Pittsburgh’s 2-6 record truly reflects what kind of team they are in 2013, and that is not on the same level as the Buffalo Bills.

 

The Spread: Steelers -3

The Pick: I’ll gladly take the +3 in this contest.

The Panthers at 49ers game has me more confused than Bills at Steelers.  Look, I get it that the Panthers haven’t beaten any very good teams, but they’ve scored at least 30 points in each of their victories while outscoring opponents by an average of 24 points per win.  Their three losses came at home against Seattle to open the season with a 12-7 loss, which was followed by a 24-23 loss on the road against Buffalo.  Their other loss came on the road against a good home team in Arizona, who also has wins at home against Detroit and Atlanta.  The point is that while Carolina hasn’t proven themselves against top competition, they have completely demoralized their opponents during their five wins.  San Francisco is likely the better team, but to be favored by 6.5 points you have to be decidedly better, and I do not think that is the case.  San Fran ranks #1 overall in rushing yards per game at 153, but faces a very good Carolina front seven this week.  Conversely, the Niners have the worst passing attack in the NFL at just 189.9 yards per game. 

The Spread: 49ers -6.5

The Pick: This should be a low scoring contest between two similarly talented teams and 6.5 is way too many points to lay in the type of physical, grinding game that we should see on Sunday.