As a general rule, I think the best way to make money when gambling on the NFL is to take the money line on an underdog, or in other words, take a straight up bet without any points. The rationalization for this is simply the old adage, "Any given Sunday." Whenever two NFL teams line up across from each other, anything can happen. So if you see a large money line (for example, +200) on a game you think should be close, give the money line a little love. Making a habit out of betting on these large money lines may not be the best strategy, but it is something to keep in mind when perusing your favorite sportsbook. In general, the best way to bet the NFL is to find line value. That is, which lines have moved a lot based on an influx of public money flooding in, or which lines have drastically changed based on the outcome of the previous week's games. People love to overreact to what they just witnessed the week before, it's called recency effect, and you can use it to your advantage when betting on sports.
Another sports betting rule: never bet on individual baseball games. Just...don't. Trust me on this. There is a reason they play 162 games and it's so that all of the randomness of baseball will (hopefully) even itself out after sixth months of playing every day. There are just too many variables that go into a baseball game. Now, if you want to bet on baseball, wager on the series price during the playoffs. Betting on a playoff series can be a lot of fun because you make just one wager, but get to have a rooting interest in every game.
Betting on the NHL is just weird. It's rare that you'll ever see a straight up line in hockey and you never really want to be in the position of handicapping goals to the other team when a single goal is so valuable. If you bet hockey, do so with discretion.
Gambling on NBA games can also be tricky. Did the team just play the night before and will be tired tonight? Is a starter injured and not playing up to par? In the NBA, individual players have a much greater impact on the game since there are fewer players on the court than in most sports. Star players can have off nights, while bench players may rise up from anonymity to have a major impact on a game. In general though, NBA lines are usually freakishly on target, and picking the right side of the line comes down to figuring out which team may be on a roll, or which team is due for a down night.
As far as college sports go, betting on both football and basketball is generally a crap shoot. The randomness of college athletics makes it exciting to bet on, but by the same token, it can also be excruciating to watch. If you want to bet on college sports, bet smaller wagers towards the beginning of the season and increase your wagering as you grow more confident in the strengths and weaknesses of various teams and conferences.
No comments:
Post a Comment