This is no newsflash, but the Kansas City Chiefs are not
nearly as good as their 9-0 record would indicate. The past three weeks have seen them scrape by
average teams, aided in large part to their opposition’s ineptitude, as well as
to their own good fortune. Two weeks ago
the Chiefs continued their string of good luck of facing inferior opposing quarterbacks, as
they played a Bills team that was forced to start third string QB Jeff Tuel, an
undrafted rookie from Washington State. Yet
Buffalo’s 470 yards on offense more than doubled Kansas City’s mediocre 210
yard output. The Chiefs somehow pulled
out the win with a fumble recovery for a TD as well as an interception returned
for a TD. The previous week Kansas City
staved off victory from the Browns as they were aided by a muffed punt and a
litany of dropped passes by the normally sure-handed Devon Bess. The week preceding the Browns game saw the
Chiefs host a Texans team led by rookie Case Keenum in his first professional
game. Keenum played admirably completing
15 of 25 passes for 271 yards and 1 TD without an interception yet the Chiefs were
able to hang on by a score of 17-16.
The Chiefs also beat Dallas by the same 17-16 score in week
two, but other than that game, the quality of their opponents has been among
the worst in the NFL. KC’s other five
victories came at Jacksonville, at Philadelphia, at Tennessee, and home against
Oakland. This is not to completely take
away from what the Chiefs have done this year, as road wins are impressive no
matter who the opponent is, but it is my roundabout way of saying that the Chiefs
are not even close to the same caliber of team as Peyton Manning’s Denver
Broncos.
Do I even need to go into detail about how good the Broncos
have been this year? Potentially the
greatest quarterback of all time is having his best professional season in a
career that includes four MVP awards. Manning
is currently projected to break the NFL record for passing yards in a single
season by a wide margin with 5,776 yards, which would break Drew Brees’ record of
5,476 yards set in 2011. It would also
break Manning’s own personal best (4,700) by over one thousand yards. In addition to his 71% completion rate and
8.81 yards per attempt (second to Aaron Rodgers at 8.84), he also has thrown
for an incredible 33 touchdowns to just 6 interceptions.
In addition to their greatest-show-on-earth offense, the
Broncos also recently had their two best defensive players return to the field
in linebacker Von Miller and cornerback Champ Bailey. While the Broncos did lose to the Colts in
Peyton’s return to Indy, Alex Smith does not have nearly as much of a chance of
keeping up with Peyton Manning as Andrew Luck did. Unless you’re of the belief that the Chiefs
defense can slow down Manning (somehow, I don’t see that happening with the way
rookies Jeff Tuel and Case Keenum moved the ball against KC), what this game
will come down to on Sunday night is can Alex Smith keep up with Peyton Manning?
The Spread: The
spread on this game is between 7.5 and 8 points in favor of Denver, depending
on where you look. I would anticipate
more money to come in on Denver as people realize that KC is overrated, but at
the same time public money may come in strong on KC given the large spread and
their undefeated record.
The Pick: I do
not think the Kanas City Chiefs can stay within 7 points of the Broncos. Even if it takes all game to establish a
lead, eventually Manning will go up by multiple touchdowns and I can’t envision
Alex Smith being able to stage a comeback.
Score Prediction:
Broncos 34, Chiefs 24
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