Friday, November 15, 2013

Sunday Night Football: Kansas City Chiefs (9-0) at Denver Broncos (8-1)

This is no newsflash, but the Kansas City Chiefs are not nearly as good as their 9-0 record would indicate.  The past three weeks have seen them scrape by average teams, aided in large part to their opposition’s ineptitude, as well as to their own good fortune.  Two weeks ago the Chiefs continued their string of good luck of facing inferior opposing quarterbacks, as they played a Bills team that was forced to start third string QB Jeff Tuel, an undrafted rookie from Washington State.  Yet Buffalo’s 470 yards on offense more than doubled Kansas City’s mediocre 210 yard output.  The Chiefs somehow pulled out the win with a fumble recovery for a TD as well as an interception returned for a TD.  The previous week Kansas City staved off victory from the Browns as they were aided by a muffed punt and a litany of dropped passes by the normally sure-handed Devon Bess.  The week preceding the Browns game saw the Chiefs host a Texans team led by rookie Case Keenum in his first professional game.  Keenum played admirably completing 15 of 25 passes for 271 yards and 1 TD without an interception yet the Chiefs were able to hang on by a score of 17-16. 
The Chiefs also beat Dallas by the same 17-16 score in week two, but other than that game, the quality of their opponents has been among the worst in the NFL.  KC’s other five victories came at Jacksonville, at Philadelphia, at Tennessee, and home against Oakland.  This is not to completely take away from what the Chiefs have done this year, as road wins are impressive no matter who the opponent is, but it is my roundabout way of saying that the Chiefs are not even close to the same caliber of team as Peyton Manning’s Denver Broncos.
 
Do I even need to go into detail about how good the Broncos have been this year?   Potentially the greatest quarterback of all time is having his best professional season in a career that includes four MVP awards.  Manning is currently projected to break the NFL record for passing yards in a single season by a wide margin with 5,776 yards, which would break Drew Brees’ record of 5,476 yards set in 2011.  It would also break Manning’s own personal best (4,700) by over one thousand yards.  In addition to his 71% completion rate and 8.81 yards per attempt (second to Aaron Rodgers at 8.84), he also has thrown for an incredible 33 touchdowns to just 6 interceptions.
 
In addition to their greatest-show-on-earth offense, the Broncos also recently had their two best defensive players return to the field in linebacker Von Miller and cornerback Champ Bailey.  While the Broncos did lose to the Colts in Peyton’s return to Indy, Alex Smith does not have nearly as much of a chance of keeping up with Peyton Manning as Andrew Luck did.  Unless you’re of the belief that the Chiefs defense can slow down Manning (somehow, I don’t see that happening with the way rookies Jeff Tuel and Case Keenum moved the ball against KC), what this game will come down to on Sunday night is can Alex Smith keep up with Peyton Manning?

The Spread: The spread on this game is between 7.5 and 8 points in favor of Denver, depending on where you look.  I would anticipate more money to come in on Denver as people realize that KC is overrated, but at the same time public money may come in strong on KC given the large spread and their undefeated record. 

The Pick: I do not think the Kanas City Chiefs can stay within 7 points of the Broncos.  Even if it takes all game to establish a lead, eventually Manning will go up by multiple touchdowns and I can’t envision Alex Smith being able to stage a comeback. 


Score Prediction: Broncos 34, Chiefs 24

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